In my last post, I mentioned that I would write an article proving that opening cases can be profitable. While I’m still planning on making that post, this is not what this is about (but it still involves gambling!).
We all know the standard way to make money in this game via gambling is to open cases. But what if I told you there is an even better way to make tons of gold? You don’t believe me? Just keep reading, because I am about to prove it with MATH!
Another way to gamble is to craft items using scraps and steel. It might not offer the same thrill as opening a case and hoping for a Mythic or Legendary equipment to pop up, but from an economic point of view, it’s a lot safer and more profitable in the short term.
WARNING: I’M ABOUT TO DROP ADVANCED MATH. GO TO THE TL;DR BELOW IF YOU CAN’T TAKE IT.
Before you craft, you have to choose the item you want and its quality. In order to craft an item, you need scraps and steel. The amount of steel required to craft a random item is half the cost of a specific one; therefore, to increase your chances of being profitable, it is highly recommended that you craft a random item. It is also recommended that you only craft Epic, Legendary, or Mythic items—the higher the quality, the higher the profit.
Profitability depends on the stats of the crafted items. For the sake of this research, we are going to use Epic items as our example, because that’s probably what most of you brokies can afford (don’t worry, you’ll be rich after reading this). If we were to craft a random purple item, we would need 162 scraps and 8 steel. These resources would cost us approximately 52 gold.
To find out how profitable this endeavor actually is, I observed the market day and night—recording prices, building spreadsheets, and doing other complicated scientific stuff you wouldn't understand. The results were surprising, to say the least, and it shocked me how many people sleep on this strategy.
Taking into account the crafting cost versus the market prices at the time of research, you have:
65.1% chance to profit
7.9% chance to break even
27.0% chance to lose some money
YOU READ THAT CORRECTLY: 65.1% PROFITABILITY. That is crazy! And even in the 27% of cases where you lose a little money, you can simply craft again until you make it back!
Here are the detailed chances for profits and losses:
+31g or more: 7.9%
+16g to 30g: 22.2%
+6g to 15g: 19.0%
+1g to 5g: 15.9%
0g (Break-even): 7.9%
-1g to -4g: 20.6%
-5g or less: 6.3%
TL;DR: Stop wasting gold on cases. Crafting random Epic items costs you roughly 52g, but gives you a 73% chance to either profit or break even. It’s mathematically the safest "gamble" in the game. If you lose, just go again—the odds are heavily in your favor!