Don't open the wooden case.
Prices are the resource book at 2026-09-15 19:20 UTC: contents at the best bid, sold at once, oil at the best ask, because you buy it. No wooden case has been traded in the feed yet, so every sealed-case number here is a bid, not a trade.
1. What falls out of one
Expected units times the best bid, for each of the 20 resources when it is the one rolled. The pill is the only jackpot at 38.20 gold, and it is 0.67% of cases. The work budget counts no inputs, so an uncommon product like oil or paper pays 2.2x a common raw for the same case; livestock is the floor at 3.4.
epic 2% chance, 3 goods, 18.19 mean gold, 0.36 adds to the case
rare 13% chance, 2 goods, 8.76 mean gold, 1.14 adds to the case
uncommon 20% chance, 6 goods, 9.37 mean gold, 1.87 adds to the case
common 65% chance, 9 goods, 4.29 mean gold, 2.79 adds to the case
a case 100% chance, 20 goods, 6.16 adds to the case
2. Sell it sealed
The wooden-case book at the pin, cumulative cases against price: the 14 best orders a side (297 of 2,704 cases wanted, 33 of 166 offered); they reach below the opening value, so every bid above it is on the chart. 228 of the 2,704 cases wanted are bid above what a case opens for; the biggest single bid above that value is 100 cases at 12.201. The best bid, reading by reading tonight: 17.55 at 18:51 UTC, 19.9 at 19:02 UTC, 18.303 at 19:12 UTC, 16.2 at 19:20 UTC. The normal case tells you where this ends: it bids 3.435 against a scrap value of 3.33, 1.03x. Fairness note: this advice sells the case down. The first sellers get the premium; the readers of this line are the first sellers.
3. Where a case lands
A drop lands on a random region, and on the 726-region map that is 9.6 hops away on average, never more than 19. 57% of drops fit inside one full stamina bar. On oil at 0.222 a hop costs 0.44 gold, so opening pays a trip out to 13.9 hops (88% of drops), and selling at 16.2 pays the longest walk on the map (38 oil, 8.4 gold) with room to spare. A fighter counts the way back: opened, the round trip pays only to 6.9 hops.
4. Let three pile up
You do not have to go for each case as it lands. Three waiting cases put the nearest 6.7 hops away and inside one bar 91% of the time; five, 5.5 hops and 98%. The roll pauses while five wait and a case dies at 48 hours, so three is the working number.
5. A day of collecting
An account with no loot points rolls 30% an hour, 7.2 cases a day. Hourly simulation, three habits, one pinned oil price. Opened, buying oil barely pays: going at once nets 23.5 a day against 21.9 for never buying a drop. Sold sealed at tonight's bid, letting three pile up nets 104 a day, and loot 10 turns that into 168.
bar only, never buy oil 3.55 cases a day, 0 oil a day, 21.9 net, opened, 57.5 net, sold sealed
go now, oil when the bar falls short 7.16 cases a day, 93 oil a day, 23.5 net, opened, 93.3 net, sold sealed
wait for three, then the nearest 7.14 cases a day, 58 oil a day, 31.3 net, opened, 103.6 net, sold sealed
6. Oil sets the radius
Oil is the travel currency now and it moved 0.195 to 0.222 since the notes, +13.8%. The opening radius is 13.9 hops tonight and would be 6.8 at 0.45. Sold sealed, the radius stays off the map at every price on the axis.
7. The update did not move the basket
Best bid per resource at the pin against the last snapshot before the notes (2026-09-14 18:33 UTC): oil +13.9%, limestone -14.3%, and the blended case 6.26 then, 6.16 now. The contents are worth what they were worth on Monday. Only the wrapper is new.
TLDR
A wooden case is worth 6.16 gold opened and 16.2 sealed at the pin. Sell sealed while the bid is above 6.2; only 228 cases of demand sat above that tonight, so the premium is thin and goes to the first sellers. - Inside one bar the walk is free. On oil, opening pays to 13 hops one way (6 round trip); selling pays anywhere, the longest trip is 8.4 gold. - Let three pile up, then take the nearest: 6.7 hops instead of 9.6. - Collect everything and sell: about 104 gold a day at tonight's bid, 31 once the bid falls to the opening value.
Sources and limits: odds and amounts from the v0.26.0 notes and the codex entry of the same evening, units as budget over productionPoints from the live game config, rounded down (rounding to nearest gives 6.57); the hourly roll is 25% plus the Luck value; the map is the game's own region graph, 726 regions, longest path 19; drops assumed uniform; the free trip home every 12 hours in the config is not modelled. 263 automated checks pin every figure. The sealed-case bid is one instant of a market a few hours old; by the time you read this it has moved.
https://app.warera.io/user/697b55e4bcecf3b37667e0d1, tonight a surveyor.