The wooden case sold for 50. Worth 6. (UPDATED)
A wooden case opens for 6.12 gold at this morning's bids. The first one traded at 50.00 at 17:22 UTC, the 17:00 hour averaged 27.99, and 16 hours after the notes the bid is 7.55, 1.2x what is inside. 11,197 cases changed hands for 117,732 gold on the way down. Still sell it sealed: the bid beats the contents by 23%, and 20,068 cases of demand sit on the book.
Prices are the resource book at 2026-09-16 09:26 UTC: contents at the best bid, sold at once, oil at the best ask, because you buy it. Trades are the global trading feed from the notes to 09:28 UTC, every wooden-case fill in it.
1. What falls out of one
Expected units times the best bid, for each of the 20 resources when it is the one rolled. The pill is the only jackpot at 36.70 gold, and it is 0.67% of cases. The work budget counts no inputs, so an uncommon product like oil or paper pays 2.2x a common raw for the same case; livestock is the floor at 3.1.
epic 2% chance, 3 goods, 17.29 mean gold, 0.35 adds to the case
rare 13% chance, 2 goods, 8.01 mean gold, 1.04 adds to the case
uncommon 20% chance, 6 goods, 9.52 mean gold, 1.90 adds to the case
common 65% chance, 9 goods, 4.35 mean gold, 2.83 adds to the case
a case 100% chance, 20 goods, 6.12 adds to the case
2. The premium lasted one night
6,086 fills, 2,845 sellers, 1,083 buyers; the biggest buyer took 8% of the cases. The 17:00 hour averaged 27.99 a case, the 09:00 hour 7.58. Overall VWAP 10.51, 1.7x the contents: the night paid its sellers about 49,206 gold more than opening would have (117,732 minus 11,197 times 6.12). The normal case says where this ends: it bids 1.05x its scrap value. Fairness note: whoever sold into last night's bids of 17.55 to 19.9 took the premium; the readers of this line are not the first sellers, and this advice sells the case down further.
3. Where a case lands
A drop lands on a random region, and on the 726-region map that is 9.6 hops away on average, never more than 19. 57% of drops fit inside one full stamina bar. On oil at 0.242 a hop costs 0.48 gold, so opening pays a trip out to 12.6 hops (79% of drops) and selling at 7.55 out to 15.6 (97%). A fighter counts the way back: opened, the round trip pays only to 6.3 hops.
4. Let three pile up
You do not have to go for each case as it lands. Three waiting cases put the nearest 6.7 hops away and inside one bar 91% of the time; five, 5.5 hops and 98%. The roll pauses while five wait and a case dies at 48 hours, so three is the working number.
5. A day of collecting
An account with no loot points rolls 30% an hour, 7.2 cases a day. Hourly simulation, three habits, one pinned oil price. Opened, buying oil barely pays: going at once nets 22.7 a day against 21.7 for never buying a drop. Sold at this morning's bid, letting three pile up nets 40 a day, and loot 10 turns that into 62.
bar only, never buy oil 3.55 cases a day, 0 oil a day, 21.7 net, opened, 26.8 net, sold sealed
go now, oil when the bar falls short 7.01 cases a day, 83 oil a day, 22.7 net, opened, 29.5 net, sold sealed
wait for three, then the nearest 6.96 cases a day, 55 oil a day, 29.2 net, opened, 40.2 net, sold sealed
6. Oil sets the radius
Oil is the travel currency now and it moved 0.195 to 0.242 since the last snapshot before the notes, +24.1%. The opening radius is 12.6 hops this morning and would be 6.8 at 0.45. Every hop the map walks is two oil off the market, and the market has noticed.
7. The update did not move the basket
Best bid per resource at the pin against the last snapshot (2026-09-14 18:33 UTC): petroleum +31.5%, cooked fish -15.9%, and the blended case 6.26 then, 6.12 now. The contents are worth what they were worth before the notes. Only the wrapper moved, and it has stopped.
TLDR
A wooden case is worth 6.12 gold opened and 7.55 sealed this morning. Sell sealed while the bid is above 6.1; the launch premium is down to 23%. - Inside one bar the walk is free. On oil at 0.242, opening pays to 12 hops one way (6 round trip), selling to 15. - Let three pile up, then take the nearest: 6.7 hops instead of 9.6. - Collect everything and sell: about 40 gold a day at this morning's bid, 29 opened.
Sources and limits: odds and amounts from the v0.26.0 notes and the codex entry of the same evening, units as budget over productionPoints from the live game config, rounded down (rounding to nearest gives 6.52); the hourly roll is 25% plus the Luck value; the map is the game's own region graph, 726 regions, longest path 19; drops assumed uniform; the free trip home every 12 hours in the config is not modelled. 276 automated checks pin every figure. The sealed-case bid is one instant; by the time you read this it has moved again.
https://app.warera.io/user/697b55e4bcecf3b37667e0d1, this morning a surveyor.