As Uzbekistan and Latvia face off, questions are being asked around all the world about the future of the alliances and the relationships between the countries. Me with the Uzbekistan Department of Free Journalists were able to get an important interview with @abu-saleem , the democratically elected president of Egypt.
Abu-Saleem: Honestly? Latvia needs this alliance much more than we do. They get to say they have Egypt behind them, and we get another flag on the alliance page. It looks respectable until somebody expects us to do something together.
They are not particularly good allies, but replacing them would involve meetings, and nobody in our government wants another meeting with Latvia.
Abu-Saleem: Publicly, we stand firmly beside Latvia. Privately, we would prefer to stand somewhere Uzbekistan is not currently attacking.
Latvia has repeatedly assured us that everything is under control. We have decided to respect that statement rather than check it too carefully. If they wanted us to take the situation seriously, perhaps they should have spent less time telling everyone how strong they are.
Abu-Saleem: Because helping costs resources, while promising to help is free. You have to understand the economics of diplomacy.
Latvia seems to believe an alliance means Egypt should spend Egyptian money solving Latvian problems. We have a slightly different interpretation. They are welcome to keep fighting while we discuss whether their situation is important enough to interrupt our plans.
Abu-Saleem: Initially, we were waiting for someone else to organize the response. Then we were waiting for someone else to pay for it. By the time we noticed that everyone was waiting for us, committing would have looked rather desperate.
Fortunately, “strategic restraint” sounds much better than “we failed to coordinate,” so that is the explanation we agreed to use.
Abu-Saleem: It is a military alliance when we need Latvia and a diplomatic friendship when Latvia needs us.
I do not understand why people find that confusing. Egypt brings prestige, leadership, and a considerable number of opinions. Latvia brings whatever they can afford after following those opinions. Both countries contribute according to their abilities.
Abu-Saleem: Very much. To be completely honest, we are tired of them. Every conversation becomes another request for assistance, another complaint, another explanation of why the latest problem somehow requires Egyptian resources.
I want the game to develop. New alliances should emerge. Ideally, one of them will take Latvia. We would wish them both every success and immediately mute the old coordination channel.
Abu-Saleem: First, ask how much help they need. Then explain why that amount is unreasonable.
If they keep insisting, we will request a detailed plan. By the time they finish preparing it, the battle may be over, which would save everyone considerable effort.
Of course, if they win without us, we will congratulate the alliance on another successful joint operation.
Abu-Saleem: To Uzbekistan: please understand that our support for Latvia should not be confused with a personal willingness to suffer for them.
To Latvia: remain confident. You are an important ally, and we will continue saying that for as long as it remains convenient.
To the Egyptian people: judge my presidency by the speeches. If you start judging it by coordination, consistency, or whether our allies can rely on us, you will create completely unreasonable expectations.