Gambling for Science: I opened 100 cases so you don't have to!
Purely for scientific research, and not at all to feed my dopamine addiction after a boring day of work, I decided to buy 100 cases during the monday morning market flood.
As seen in the image above they were purchased at around 4.1 btc each, totalling to approximately 410 btc. Based on the predetermined probability of the different equipment rarities you can get from a case one would theoretically expect the following outcome after opening 100 cases:
Grey: 62
Green: 30
Blue: 7
Purple: 1
Yellow: 0
Red: 0
The actual results were ... somewhat disappointing. See for yourselves:
Figure 1: Quantity of equipment/weapons per rarity
In the lower tier rarities the statistics hold up pretty well. However, moving to the higher tier rarities, where I was hoping luck would be on my side, the graph remains rather white... So white, that I almost decided to leave the graph out or even skip the whole article, since there's not much to show past the sad little bar of 3 blue's that sort of made me keep my sanity but is also way less than expected.
Frustrations aside, I did decide to post this and also keep in the slightly saddening graph, just to portrey the harsh truth to you guys. The physicist in me is actually pretty pleased to see that the displayed case probabilities apear to be true, because on the relatively small sample size of a hundred cases, the results approach the theory rather well. Nevertheless, it is slightly unfortunate that the results leaned a little more to the 'cheaper' side...
Now let's talk money; as mentioned, I spend around 410 btc on cased. A mere 10 minutes later I ended up with an inventory valued at around 320 btc, meaning a 90 btc loss. Now please don't tip to pitty my losses, that is absolutely not necessary. But if you do want to leave a tip, do it for science! Maybe with enough funds I can continue my research. 😋
TL;DR: Don't try this at home!
Edit: special thanks to the people that already decided to fund the continuation of my research with their hard earned money! When I'm financially capable of doing a part two, I will dedicate a case to each of you:
https://app.warera.io/user/682fee193fe328ddb3709f45
https://app.warera.io/user/692ee8d8d930f58a92c19dd3
https://app.warera.io/user/6977c6b177868b1f76459dca
https://app.warera.io/user/696881ae55cb9663e771a25d
https://app.warera.io/user/6953fbf4ee2779e168e5a460
https://app.warera.io/user/697a5445abf9ec82485f028b
https://app.warera.io/user/68e53c7330789dea21aa8737