At first glance, the cases looks non profitable. But After calculating the drop chances and the average value of each rarity, the expected profit comes out to around 0.37 gold per case, which is about a 10% return overall.
But there’s a catch !! this is only true statistically. In the short term, you can still lose a lot because most of the drops are gray and green items. The real profit mainly comes from hitting blue items and the very rare epic, gold, or red drops. So even if the math says you should profit, luck can still destroy you over a small number of openings.
For example, you could open 100 cases and still end up negative just because you got unlucky. But over a much bigger sample size, like 1,000+ openings, the results should slowly get closer to the expected value. If the rates are real and unbiased, the average profit should eventually settle around 0.37 gold per case.
So on paper, the opening cases is profitable. Now the only thing left is to test it in practice and see if the actual results match the calculations. And that's what I will do! So donate for me to continue gambling!🦦