I opened 7.777 cases -- the results were soul crushing

Hello everyone,

It seems that you really liked my last article: https://app.warera.io/article/6ab770a2147997b5262d92c2 so I come back to you with new case opening.

This time I opened 7 777 normal equipment cases. There are the results:

As you can see I got pretty unlucky with exactly 0 Legendary items in all those openings.

The probability of it happening is about 4.5%.

Additionally I had one run of over 800 cases where I only dropped 1 Epic, probability of that is less than 0.1%.

Most of those opening articles just show you a scrap value of the items dropped and that's it, but that's boring, I wouldn't do it to you, because you are my favourtie people. I went a step ahead and managed to track each of the dropped items to the exact market transaction of me selling it (for those items that I didn't immedietly scrap of course) so I can tell you a real result.

So there are the stats:

Rarity | Total | Scrapped | Sold | Scrap value | Sale value | Revenue

Grey | 4766 | 4766 | 0 | 3 560 | 0 | 3 560

Green | 2390 | 2390 | 0 | 10 712 | 0 | 10 712

Blue | 548 | 268 | 280 | 3604 | 4 115 | 7 719

Purple | 73 | 1 | 72 | 40 | 3 803 | 3 843

Or in more readable excel version:

Yes for some reason I scrapped an epic item instead of selling it, poor 101/17% rifle R.I.P.

Edit: I didn't scrap that epic, turns out it is so bad that no one bought it yet, still available on the market :P

So total revenue assuming today's price of scrap (0.249) and real selling prices is 25.384,17 BTC.

But how much did the cases cost?

In today prices (about 3.8 per case) it'd be 29.552,6 BTC, so a loss of 4.168,43 BTC.

At first I couldn't believe this number, so I tried again with the case price of 3.6 (which was what I mostly paid this week) and scrap value of 0.234 which it mostly was for almost all week. This way I still got a loss of 3.242,31 BTC.

I was sure that I made loss from this this week, but I wasn't ready to see how much I actually lost, luckly I made money in other ways and were still ahead for the week.

If you are interested in the stat distribution for each quality then they are mostly uniform:

And for weapons:

And that's all from me this week.

I'm currently close to finishing opening 22.222 wooden cases so that probably will be the next article, sometime next week. If you want to see article about someting specific, please let me know in comments.

Remember to like, subscribe and tip and see you next time.

Yours truly,

polko14