💰 Loot chance optimization 💰

Since no one was asking, I did the math anyways.

We all know the true horror of being in eco mode and one of your daily missions coming in as "Loot 1 case from battles".

Nothing more frustrating than fighting your way to a 70% loot chance and still failing your mission.

Have you ever wondered; "Would I be better off participating in multiple battles instead of 1?" 🤔

If so, then this article is for you! 🫵

The answer is: NO!

While on average you will always get 0.05 cases per attack (given a 5% loot chance), the goal of the mission is to loot at least 1 case on that day.

For this article I researched 3 different strategies for looting at least 1 case:
- 5 hits in battle A + 5 hits in battle B
- 10 hits in a single battle
- 8 hits in battle A + 2 hits in battle B

And the loot chance is as follows (given a 5% loot chance per hit):
- 0 cases: 56.25%, 1 case: 37.5%, 2 cases: 6.25%
- 0 cases: 50%, 1 case: 50%, 2 cases: 0%
- 0 cases 54%, 1 case: 42%, 2 cases: 4%

As you can see, by spreading your attacks over multiple battles you do add a chance to loot 2 cases but you increase the chance of looting 0 cases by the same amount which lowers the chance of looting at least 1 case.

Sadly, mission-wise there are no bonus points for looting 2 or more cases on a single day so the added chance for looting 2 cases is a complete waste of your good fortune (unless you pull 2 fighter jets out of those 2 cases of course).

Subscribe for more fun with ⭐ Math with Bremsie ⭐