Opening Cases: Is It Actually Worth It? I Did The Math So You Don't Have To
Ladies and gentlemen! I bring wonderful news for all of you gambling addicts!
You know the drill, you're sitting on a stack of green cases, debating whether to open them or just sell them for a quick ≈3.3 gold each. Most people will tell you:
"Just sell them, opening is a waste."
Most people are wrong.
I got curious, ran the numbers, and the results might surprise you.
The Setup
A green case, at the time of writing, costs 3.36 gold to sell. But what if you open it instead?
Cases have 6 rarity tiers, each with different drop rates.
Each rarity tier has a different average item value across all equipment types (weapons, helmets, chests, gloves, pants, boots):
Crunch those numbers together, and you get the expected value (EV) of opening a single case.
The Result
EV = (0.0001 × 361.1) + (0.0004 × 133.9) + (0.0085 × 50.5) + (0.071 × 15.9) + (0.30 × 3.95) + (0.62 × 1.32) = ≈ 3.65 gold
The expected value of opening a case is currently 3.65 gold. Selling currently gives you 3.36 gold. That's a +8.6% ROI (Return on Investment), just from opening a green case.
Opening cases is, on average, currently more profitable than selling them. Contrary to what your broke friends have been telling you.
What about red/elite cases?
Good question. Elite cases currently sell for ≈24 gold and have much better drop rates: No Basic tier at all, and significantly higher chances at the rare stuff. Sounds great, right?
Drop rates for elite case:
Now we run the same math as before:
EV = (0.005 × 361.1) + (0.025 × 133.9) + (0.15 × 50.5) + (0.32 × 15.9) + (0.50 × 3.95) = ≈ 19.79 gold
The conclusion completely flips. You're losing nearly 4.6 gold on average every time you open one. That's a -18,8% ROI.
The Elite case is priced well above what the contents are actually worth. So to be clear: sell your Elite cases, open your green ones.
But Wait - A Word Of Warning
Before you go full degenerate and open 500 green cases expecting to get rich, let me be real with you.
That 8.6% edge only holds up over a large number of opens. Here's the uncomfortable truth about what you'll actually get most of the time:
62% change: a grey item worth ~1.32 gold 💀
30% chance: a green item worth ~3.95 gold 😐
7.1% chance: a blue item worth ~15.9 gold 🙂
So roughly 9 out of every 10 cases you open will give you something worth less than just selling the case. The positive expected value is almost entirely carried by the rare drops.
The red and yellow items are worth hundreds of gold, but you'll be waiting a very long time to see one.
In short: mathematically you should open. Emotionally, you will suffer.
Also worth noting: Priecs are entirely player-driven, so they fluctuate. The math here is a snapshot. If the market shifts significantly, the ROI will too. Always worth checking current prices before opening a fat stack of cases.
Conclusion
Is it currently more profitable to open cases? Yes, technically. Is it a guaranteed money printer? Absolutely not.
Think of it like this: The house edge is actually in your favour for once, but only if you're playing the long game. If you need quick, predictable income, selling cases at 3.36 is perfectly reasonable. But if you've got a stack of cases and a gambling problem, at least now you know the odds are slightly in your favour.
You're welcome. Now go open some cases and cry about getting grey gloves.
— MBF
Raw item price and drop rate data pulled in-game, at 14:30 CET, 20th May, 2026.