# Presidential Elections — September 2026 - Two Records, Six Risers
Presidential Elections — September 2026
Four things before the numbers. Party membership and active population are live readings from 3 September, not snapshots taken on election night, so a party that shed or gained members in the last twenty-four hours will look slightly different here than it did at the ballot. The turnout rate is my own figure — votes cast divided by active population — and may not match the rate shown elsewhere if a different denominator is used. Italy ran two presidential rounds in July, on the 2nd and the 8th, so its "last three rounds" are rounds, not months. And a disclosure: I won the Italian race, which is why that section is written differently from the other five.
Now the number that frames everything else.
Every single one of the six nations in this column voted more this month than last. Not one exception, not one flat line. Across the six, 1,522 votes in August became 1,944 in September — a 27.7% rise in a single cycle. Two of them, https://app.warera.io/country/6813b6d546e731854c7ac845 and https://app.warera.io/country/6813b6d446e731854c7ac7a2, did not merely recover: they posted the highest presidential turnout in their history.
And here is the part that is genuinely strange. In August those two nations sat at the bottom of this table — Egypt on a 24.9% turnout rate, Italy on 30.8%, the two least engaged electorates of the six. In September they are the top two. The floor and the ceiling swapped places in thirty days.
🇩🇪 Germany — "The Crowded Throne"
https://app.warera.io/country/6813b6d446e731854c7ac79c remains the giant of this column — 1,112 active citizens, nearly twice the next nation — and it produced the most fragmented result of the six.
Result. https://app.warera.io/user/69a14b324d2abd93de74dc0a of https://app.warera.io/party/69c0e61777b409b357509f2f wins with 198 votes (35.9%) — the lowest winning share anywhere in this column — ahead of https://app.warera.io/user/69a87b38762cdbffe2f2994c of https://app.warera.io/party/69ac59479db4eee6819e35f0 on 129 (23.4%), a margin of 69 votes. Third, and this is the notable one, is https://app.warera.io/user/697689e28239557c8baec6a6 who ran with no party at all and took 67 votes (12.2%) — the strongest independent showing of the month in any of the six nations. Fourth is https://app.warera.io/user/69773c2781af219a70826739 of https://app.warera.io/party/69bae2bc1348cf457e21469d on 47 (8.5%).
Twenty-one candidates stood and eighteen of them took votes. Marcell_DAvis was third here in August on 46 votes; he has more than quadrupled that. Taru95, who won both July and August, did not stand at all — a two-term president walking away rather than losing.
Turnout Analysis. Last three rounds: 432 → 478 → 551. Three straight increases, and the strongest German turnout since the 747-vote spike of June. Turnout rate: 551 from 1,112, 49.6%, up from 42.0% in August. Germany is not back at its June peak, but the "stabilising after the spring surge" reading from last month now looks more like a steady climb.
Elected Administration:
https://app.warera.io/user/69a14b324d2abd93de74dc0a — President
https://app.warera.io/user/6976afb9713451d626e54737 — Vice President
https://app.warera.io/user/69b65b087903e4b84c806a75 — Minister of Defense
https://app.warera.io/user/69775fd2f33a5754ed92c817 — Minister of Economy
https://app.warera.io/user/69a6df1fd43e5d2935ed804c — Minister of Foreign Affairs
Worth noting: the new vice president was president himself in May. Germany is recycling its former heads of state into the cabinet rather than out of politics — a pattern that turns up again further down this page.
🇵🇹 Portugal — "The Machine"
Result. https://app.warera.io/user/688f507f779d04817c68c6f4 of https://app.warera.io/party/698d224c8175d64067c5f2c4 takes a second term with 207 votes (72.9%) — the largest proportional victory of the month — a margin of 188 votes over https://app.warera.io/user/687f7fcbd6ef03aa5f9a1c16 of https://app.warera.io/party/6994520e299f8cd75496de71 on 19 (6.7%). Third is https://app.warera.io/user/69ac8fc144ea5552616ca01d of https://app.warera.io/party/6a72015e29eaf9784664fb99 on 18 (6.3%).
The margin is only half the story. Espada Tuga put five candidates on the ballot — the president plus https://app.warera.io/user/6a085c5921600fbc1be4260d on 13 votes, https://app.warera.io/user/6895dc734fad0d6e368bd5e8 on 5, https://app.warera.io/user/6a1dbb97a63bbb4115544f4f on 3 and https://app.warera.io/user/6a09a678b418133296713601 on 1 — and between them they hold 80.6% of everything cast in https://app.warera.io/country/6813b6d446e731854c7ac7aa. No other party in this column dominates a ballot that completely.
Turnout Analysis. Last three rounds: 193 → 259 → 284. Two consecutive rises, and 284 is within touching distance of the all-time Portuguese high of 307 set in June. Turnout rate: 284 from 654, 43.4%, up from 39.1%. Steady, unspectacular, and the only nation of the six where the rise looks like continuation rather than a jolt.
Elected Administration:
https://app.warera.io/user/688f507f779d04817c68c6f4 — President
https://app.warera.io/user/68a62cbd35aee16ea6f6383f — Vice President
https://app.warera.io/user/6a0a5608f5e99bdf4891469e — Minister of Defense
https://app.warera.io/user/6a32ed7c9360bab56a3e7ead — Minister of Economy
Minister of Foreign Affairs: vacant at the time of writing
🇪🇬 Egypt — "The Doubling"
The single biggest movement of the month, in any nation, on any measure.
Result. https://app.warera.io/user/691e02d933063ef3c6f724df of https://app.warera.io/party/6a258ab948e0cd778ce0fcd3 wins a third consecutive term with 221 votes (63.7%), a margin of 157 over https://app.warera.io/user/69c79216cbdcd4950c8eb55e of https://app.warera.io/party/699eb93ffaf6ffba3bb05971 on 64 (18.4%). Third is https://app.warera.io/user/69ceda362900265d5f01e7da of https://app.warera.io/party/69d5c88c565bb5e5790092f3 on 19 (5.5%). Fifteen candidates took votes, across six parties and two independents.
The winner's share has actually fallen — 79.8% in August, 63.7% now — while his raw vote nearly doubled, from 130 to 221. That is what a mobilised opposition looks like: he is winning bigger in absolute terms and less completely in relative terms, because the people who turned out this month were not all his.
Turnout Analysis. Last three rounds: 159 → 163 → 347. That is +184 votes, +112.9% in one cycle, an all-time record for https://app.warera.io/country/6813b6d546e731854c7ac845 by a distance — the previous best was 241 back in May. Turnout rate: 347 from 622, 55.8%, the highest of the six, up from 24.9% in August. Last month this column said Egypt risked becoming a one-party shell with a shrinking active base. That reading is now comprehensively out of date, and it took exactly one cycle to invalidate it.
Elected Administration:
https://app.warera.io/user/691e02d933063ef3c6f724df — President
https://app.warera.io/user/69cf149d3ab4f6fcec9c0057 — Vice President
https://app.warera.io/user/69cebcc30aee5d7215d034de — Minister of Defense
https://app.warera.io/user/69de321f3017974fc1344336 — Minister of Economy
https://app.warera.io/user/6a5c1e58e6be3b582b0baf3e — Minister of Foreign Affairs
(other picture will come, tool have an hiccup rn)
🇳🇱 Netherlands — "The Narrowing Mandate"
Result. https://app.warera.io/user/6987ee7614b4297da02b3188 of https://app.warera.io/party/698cfdfadd1535bea627fe7e is re-elected with 146 votes (46.9%), ahead of https://app.warera.io/user/699b2ff0e71fa94cb553b3c4 of https://app.warera.io/party/6a84a2af032ef2c6ad60ade1 on 54 (17.4%) — a margin of 92 — with https://app.warera.io/user/695c416f15e487bcb55c807d of https://app.warera.io/party/698d06dc41f256c7a81c16cc third on 23 (7.4%).
A second term, but a thinner one. In August the incumbent took 211 votes and 69.6%; this month, on a higher total turnout, he took 65 fewer votes and 22.7 points less of the share. Thirteen candidates stood, up from eight in August. Meanwhile https://app.warera.io/user/69641a535a395c07268e2f56 of https://app.warera.io/party/698d0408d2770456e1ca11d0 — the party that held the presidency until July — recovered only slightly, from 15 votes to 18, which is not the comeback a former governing party needs.
Turnout Analysis. Last three rounds: 331 → 303 → 311. The three-month slide has stopped, but only just: +8 votes is the smallest increase of the six, and https://app.warera.io/country/6813b6d446e731854c7ac7a0 is the one nation here whose September figure is still below its July one. Turnout rate: 311 from 613, 50.7%, up from 47.9%. Third of the six, having been first last month — overtaken not by decline but by everyone else moving faster.
Elected Administration:
https://app.warera.io/user/6987ee7614b4297da02b3188 — President
https://app.warera.io/user/69820c895312557c1f363ab7 — Vice President
https://app.warera.io/user/69a197bf8da306e895609412 — Minister of Defense
https://app.warera.io/user/69a062e3bf1835cf619d840f — Minister of Economy
https://app.warera.io/user/69542e947a4dd513077e183b — Minister of Foreign Affairs
🇸🇪 Sweden — "The Minister Takes the Chair"
Result. https://app.warera.io/user/69df64f26aef50deba7eb161 of https://app.warera.io/party/6a135b5d6aa0f1516c3119c2 wins with 127 votes (54.5%), a margin of 49 over https://app.warera.io/user/69df50aa4eacbff0ac903299 of https://app.warera.io/party/6a28794be6f492db4a569973 on 78 (33.5%). Third is https://app.warera.io/user/69df6f476aef50deba87c8b4 of https://app.warera.io/party/698d11b6cda6e7017373f333 on 23 (9.9%).
Only five candidates stood — the narrowest field of the six alongside Italy — and the story is one of internal promotion. The winner was Foreign Minister in the outgoing administration; Ugge, who won August by 38 votes in the tightest race of that month, did not stand at all. And in the neatest piece of political recycling this cycle, the runner-up — beaten into second here for the second month running, and himself president in June and July — has been appointed Foreign Minister by the man who beat him. The chair and the ministry simply swapped occupants.
Turnout Analysis. Last three rounds: 191 → 195 → 233. A real acceleration after two nearly flat months, though still short of the 292-vote peak of June. Turnout rate: 233 from 477, 48.8%, up from 40.2% — the largest rate gain of the six after Egypt and Italy.
Elected Administration:
https://app.warera.io/user/69df64f26aef50deba7eb161 — President
https://app.warera.io/user/697f9add92b5608af23fb9c5 — Vice President
https://app.warera.io/user/69df6d08a32a66b863791ade — Minister of Defense
https://app.warera.io/user/69e2711de64f9fd7298dac0e — Minister of Economy
https://app.warera.io/user/69df50aa4eacbff0ac903299 — Minister of Foreign Affairs
🇮🇹 Italy — "The Record, Not the Result"
https://app.warera.io/country/6813b6d446e731854c7ac7a2 closes this column as usual, 8th by active population and kept in as the home nation. This month I am in the numbers, so take the analysis with that declared.
Result. https://app.warera.io/user/69d2ed249f38d300d59a2af1 of https://app.warera.io/party/698d017eebb98b9142fa280d wins with 130 votes (59.6%) — a margin of 84 votes over https://app.warera.io/user/697b63a99ca8338d831c1f61 of https://app.warera.io/party/69d58550aa2c2516cb8b3903 on 46 (21.1%). Third is https://app.warera.io/user/69ce46fe3efc66a8eb2c4f89 of https://app.warera.io/party/69bf4483f43e5ce727ce8d5f on 16 votes (7.3%), just ahead of party colleague https://app.warera.io/user/6a5ea31dfc4c52b2f8ace326 on 14 (6.4%). Closing the field is https://app.warera.io/user/69ea5e021cf790e1bbb1066c of https://app.warera.io/party/6a8df882b43834ecb537544e on 12 (5.5%).
That is me, and the explanation is more structural than personal: MOS MAIORVM is the largest party in Italy at 112 members, about 65% bigger than Imperium of Real Evolution (68) and more than double LOGGIA ZAMPETTI (50), and I came out of the August congressional ballot in first place, so the personal vote was already on the record. Biggest organisation plus an existing vote is the combination that has won most of these contests all year, in every nation on this page.
The number on the other side of the ballot is the larger one. The sitting president went into this round having won August with 101 votes and 81.5% — the widest proportional victory in the whole column last month — and finished third on 16. His party's two candidates took 30 votes between them, against 101 for one of them a month ago. In a cycle when every electorate on this page mobilised, his did not: that is a fact about turnout rather than a verdict on him, and it would read the same way if it had happened to me.
Turnout Analysis. Last three rounds: 179 → 124 → 218. The 124 of August was Italy's weakest showing since spring; the 218 of September is the highest presidential turnout in Italian history, beating the 213 of May. That is +94 votes, +75.8% in a single cycle — the second largest jump of the six in percentage terms, behind only Egypt. Turnout rate: 218 votes from 396 active citizens, 55.1%, second only to Egypt and up from 30.8% in August. The detail that makes it real is in the denominator: Italy's active population fell over the month, from 403 to 396. This is not new people arriving. It is the same electorate, seven people smaller, casting ninety-four more votes — so what moved was motivation, not headcount.
The revolving door. Italy has now changed president in five consecutive rounds: Zoro92 in May, Altavilla in June, Mastropaglia on 2 July, Mik_Oda on 8 July, Dreyfasu in August, and me in September. Four changes out of four, where no other nation here manages more than three (https://app.warera.io/country/6813b6d446e731854c7ac7f2 and https://app.warera.io/country/6813b6d446e731854c7ac79c). Which is why a record turnout is not the same thing as a mandate: this electorate has ejected the last four occupants of the chair, and has just demonstrated it can produce 218 votes when it decides to care. The number cuts both ways, and October will say which way.
The government that comes out of it has at least a certain symmetry. My vice president held the presidency in June, and the runner-up held it in July. The people this system kept ejecting are back inside it — the same pattern https://app.warera.io/country/6813b6d446e731854c7ac79c and https://app.warera.io/country/6813b6d446e731854c7ac7f2 produced this month, arrived at independently.
Elected Administration:
https://app.warera.io/user/69d2ed249f38d300d59a2af1 — President
https://app.warera.io/user/698e085381cea824ea1d1f8d — Vice President
https://app.warera.io/user/69d48aab60c7189005eaa325 — Minister of Defense
https://app.warera.io/user/69d7a94a4336cd270ab7a6b8 — Minister of Economy
https://app.warera.io/user/694422ef16baf6b5d5a3cc61 — Minister of Foreign Affairs
Comparative Turnout
Votes cast against active population, ordered by rate:
🇪🇬 Egypt — 622 active, 347 votes, 55.8%. All-time national record, and last month's worst rate becomes this month's best.
🇮🇹 Italy — 396 active, 218 votes, 55.1%. All-time national record, on the smallest population of the six.
🇳🇱 Netherlands — 613 active, 311 votes, 50.7%. Last month's leader, now third; the slide has stopped but the recovery is the weakest here.
🇩🇪 Germany — 1,112 active, 551 votes, 49.6%. Third consecutive rise, on by far the largest electorate.
🇸🇪 Sweden — 477 active, 233 votes, 48.8%. Sharp acceleration after two flat months.
🇵🇹 Portugal — 654 active, 284 votes, 43.4%. The lowest rate of the six, and still its second-best raw turnout ever.
What the month says. The rise is universal, which makes it hard to pin on any single national drama — six different electorates, six different sets of candidates, one direction of travel. The two nations that moved most had the most room to move, and both broke their own records doing it.
Beyond that, three patterns are worth carrying into October. Incumbency is not what it was: of the six sitting presidents, two were re-elected comfortably (Portugal, Egypt), one was re-elected on a badly reduced share (Netherlands), one fell to third (Italy), and two did not stand at all (Germany, Sweden). Winning shares are diverging: 72.9% in Portugal and 35.9% in Germany won the same office in the same week. And former presidents are staying in government rather than leaving it — as vice president in Germany and Italy, as foreign minister in Sweden. Whether that produces continuity or simply a slower revolving door is October's question.
Data pulled live on 3 September 2026. Presidential round: 2–3 September 2026. Active population, party membership and cabinet composition are current as of the extraction, not as of election night.
