Stats Don't Lie. My Elite Case Experiment

ROI: +44.6% | Profit: +564 coins 💰

At 57 cases, I got 2 yellow and 2 red already. I was doing extremely well. I genuinely thought I am the new gambling king. Luck is with me.

100 Cases

ROI: +12.3% | Profit: +273 coins

The profit was still there, but it had already dropped massively. The early luck was fading.

149 CASES

ROI: +6.1% | Profit: +202 coins

Now the warning signs were obvious. I was still profitable, but my huge early advantage was almost gone.

203 CASES

ROI: +6.5% | Profit: +293 coins

Still almost same return as normal cases. So i thought why to click more when i can get same return in elite cases. So i started rolling elite cases as my main thing.

300 CASES

ROI: -1.0% | Loss: -70 coins 📉

This was the turning point. Now i was desperate i will get red or yellow anytime soon. I will get back to 6% roi anytime. So started opening more by liquidating my items.

355 CASES

ROI: -6.5% | LOSS: -512 coins

After 355 cases, the experiment was clear: the stats won. My early profit completely disappeared and turned into a loss.

I lost 805 coins in a day, 26% of total wealth. I am just level 19. Learned my lesson. I am done with elite cases

The lesson

I thought I could beat the statistics because I started lucky. But the more cases I opened, the closer I got to the real expected return.

You can beat the stats temporarily. You can't beat negative EV forever.