The 1K Case Experiment: Should You Sell or Gamble?

We’ve all faced the same choice: sell cases for guaranteed value, or open them and hope for a big hit. So instead of guessing, I ran the numbers.

Each case sells for 3.68.
If you have 1,000 cases, that’s a guaranteed 3,680.

Using the official drop rates (0.01% Mythic → 62% Common) and the actual sell prices of all items, the expected value of opening a case is much lower:

• Expected return per case: ~1.8 – 2.6

• Opening 1,000 cases: ~1,800 – 2,600

That’s a loss of roughly 30%–50% compared to selling.

The reason is simple: the high value items exist, but their drop rates are extremely low. Most of your pulls will be commons and uncommons, which drags the average down.

So in pure numbers:

• Sell 1,000 cases → +3,680 guaranteed

• Open 1,000 cases → ~1,800 – 2,600 expected

Opening only wins if you hit rare outliers and that’s where the gamble comes in. You’re trading a guaranteed profit for a small chance at a big payout. Most of the time, the math doesn’t favor you.

So it comes down to what you want:
consistent value → sell
risk + excitement → gamble and open