CASE ECONOMY: WHEN TO SELL, WHEN TO OPEN, AND WHY THE CURVE MATTERS

Everyone has heard the easy advice:

“Just sell the cases.”

That advice is safe.
But safe is not always smart.

The case market is currently around 3.10–3.15 gold.
The question is not whether selling gives guaranteed gold.

The real question is:

“What is the case actually worth?”

So Mali checked the numbers.

EV formula

EV = Σ(chance × value)

Result

EV ≈ 3.44 gold per case

So if the market sells cases at 3.10–3.15, then the case is trading under its average value.

And yes, if you hit common, you lose money.

So the critics are half-right.

Most single openings are not impressive.

Common loses.
Uncommon roughly covers the case.
Rare and above create the profit.

Most players think:

“The case is only good if I hit mythic.”

Wrong.

The case value is carried mainly by:

Common + Uncommon + Rare

This is also why the calculation is dynamic.
If item prices rise, the case EV rises.
If item prices fall, the case EV falls.
So the smart player watches both:

case price + item prices

Not just the case market.

This is the part that matters.

If the case costs less than its EV, opening has positive expected value.
If the case costs more than its EV, selling is smarter.

Right now:

Case market: 3.10–3.15
Case EV:     3.44

So opening is currently on the good side of the curve.
That does not mean every opening profits.
It means the full distribution is favorable.

Why?

Common + Uncommon = 92% of all drops
Rare or better = 8%
Epic or better = less than 1%
Legendary/Mythic = lottery territory

That is why people open a few cases, get bad results, and say the math is fake.
The math is not fake.
Their sample size is just small.

Example at 3.10:

• 10 cases → +3.42 gold expected profit

• 50 cases → +17.09 gold

• 100 cases → +34.17 gold

• 300 cases → +102.51 gold

• 500 cases → +170.86 gold

• 1000 cases → +341.71 gold

So the correct advice is:

Don’t judge the case from one opening.
Judge it from the curve.

What Should YOU Do?

If you are casual

Selling at 3.10–3.15 is fine if you need fast gold.

But understand what you are doing:

You are choosing safety over expected value.

If you are trading

Buy below 3.20.
Be careful above 3.35.
Sell above 3.45.
Strong sell above 3.60.

If you are opening

Open with volume.
Track total results.
Do not cry after common streaks.
Sell the drops properly.

Bad selling destroys good EV.

Full market-selling EV: ~3.44 gold
Scrap common/uncommon hybrid: ~3.33 gold
Scrap everything EV: ~2.92 gold

Common → scrap
Uncommon → scrap
Rare → sell on market
Epic → sell on market
Legendary → sell on market
Mythic → sell on market, do not rush

Hybrid EV ≈ 3.33 gold per case