Like many new players, I assumed that moving from raw materials into processed goods would naturally increase profitability.
Current market data suggests otherwise.
One of the first things I did when starting WarEra was read the Portuguese Beginner Guide. It recommends a progression that most players are familiar with:
Iron
Limestone
Steel
Concrete
It makes intuitive sense. Start with raw resources, then move up the value chain into processed goods.
But after looking at current market prices and running some simulations, I started wondering:
Is this progression still optimal under today's market conditions?
At the time of writing:
• Iron: 0.0805
• Limestone: 0.0825
• Steel: 1.5895
• Concrete: 1.5965
• Grain: 0.0765
• Bread: 1.7675
Using current prices and accounting for raw material consumption in processed products:
Limestone — 0.0825
Iron — 0.0805
Steel — 0.0785
Concrete — 0.0772
This creates an unexpected ranking:
Limestone > Iron > Steel > Concrete
Not only does Limestone outperform Iron.
Both raw resources outperform their processed counterparts.
That was not what I expected to find.
Most players naturally assume that moving into processed goods increases profitability.
After all:
Steel requires Iron
Concrete requires Limestone
More complexity should mean more profit.
But markets don't care about complexity.
They care about supply and demand.
A processed product is only worth producing if the market is paying enough to justify both the raw materials consumed and the PP spent processing them.
One of the most useful outcomes of this analysis is identifying the break-even points where processing becomes more profitable than selling the raw resource directly.
Steel becomes more profitable than Iron when:
Steel Price > 20 × Iron Price
Current Steel Price:
1.5895
Required Price:
1.6100
Result:
Iron is currently more profitable.
Concrete becomes more profitable than Limestone when:
Concrete Price > 20 × Limestone Price
Current Concrete Price:
1.5965
Required Price:
1.6500
Result:
Limestone is currently more profitable.
Bread becomes more profitable than Grain when:
Bread Price > 20 × Grain Price
Current Bread Price:
1.7675
Required Price:
1.5300
Result:
Bread is currently more profitable.
I then simulated several common starting combinations using the same reinvestment strategy.
Limestone + Limestone
1387.98 profit
Limestone + Iron
1369.16 profit
Iron + Limestone
1362.70 profit
Iron + Iron
1329.22 profit
The differences are not massive.
But they are consistent.
Under current market conditions:
Limestone + Limestone outperformed every Iron-based opening.
Since I was already running the simulation, I also tested one of the most common upgrade recommendations.
The popular:
AE3 → AE3 → New Company
strategy slightly outperformed:
AE4 → AE4 → New Company
over a 90-day period.
The difference was smaller than I expected, but the recommendation appears to remain mathematically sound.
Interestingly, this ended up being the least surprising result of the entire analysis.
The goal of this article isn't to claim that the Portuguese Beginner Guide is wrong.
The guide is designed to be robust and easy to follow.
Markets, however, change.
And right now the market is telling an interesting story.
At current prices:
• Limestone is more profitable than Iron.
• Iron is more profitable than Steel.
• Limestone is more profitable than Concrete.
• Limestone + Limestone appears to be the strongest beginner opening among the commonly recommended raw-resource starts.
• AE3 remains a very solid expansion point.
The most important takeaway is probably not "build only Limestone."
It's this:
Don't assume processed goods are automatically more profitable.
Sometimes the most profitable thing in WarEra isn't the more advanced product.
It's the raw material everyone else is consuming.